Ed Sim has a good post on knowing when to walk away from a deal. In his post he writes, "Having done enough deals, I am of the opinion that if it is extremely
one-sided and never makes economic sense, it is a recipe for disaster." What I also like is the tone of his writeup. Many of Ed’s posts are from the perspective of being involved and actively processing what’s going on in his venture portfolio companies.
Jeff Nolan Post on Business Development
Excellent post by Jeff Nolan on business development functions. More of a unique post in the blogosphere because the business development function is defined fuzzily (word?) across the industry as a whole in my mind. I agree with Jeff in the sense that this position is often troubled in tech start-ups. I would go further to say it is a position that is often troubled in many tech firms in general.
Corporate Blogging Book Deal Probably Dead
A book publisher approached me earlier this year to write a book on business and emerging technologies. Never thought of myself as being an author, but the opportunity showed up at the right time – my "spider-sense" told me that it was something that I should pursue further.
Things had been going well through final steps, but recently went South. Trying to do some legwork to see where things are at, but I suspect the deal is probably dead because of a combination of the market space and other factors (how’s that for leaving myself an open door!). More details to come for those following the blogging area. If you want to be included on an email list for updates of this thread, feel free to send me email at sshu@s4management.com (or you can just stay tuned). 😉
Steve Shu
Managing Director, S4 Management Group
Increased Choice, More Temptation
I left off my last post by asking why having an increased
number of choices works well at Starbucks, but seems to cause confusion when
buying jam. The difference often comes down to knowing our own preferences. For
everyday decisions with immediate feedback, like buying coffee, we are able to
establish our favorites relatively easily. And if the wrong choice is made, the
cost is low and we’ll only have to live with it for about an hour. Choosing the
wrong jam may stick with you a little longer – perhaps a month, depending on
how often you enjoy jam on toast. And consider really big decisions like where
to put your retirement savings – it’s a decision made rarely, with no immediate
feedback and very high stakes for choosing wrong. Too much choice can certainly
be overwhelming in such an environment.
Luckily, we can propose solutions for individuals
overwhelmed by choice. We can find ways to provide faster feedback so poor
choices can be corrected quickly. We can also help consumers deal with choice
by offering more information and assistance in discovering the relevant
attributes and tradeoffs, thus helping them discover their own preferences. Or
we can provide a hierarchy of choice, so that as a consumer’s preferences
become more refined over time, more customization becomes available to him. For
example, we can offer starter packs of a variety of small jam jars, or ask more
questions about when and where you eat jam, or devise rating scales that help
you better quantify your jam preferences. Although greater choice has the
downside of sometimes being overwhelming, it is a downside we can manage, and
the extra effort is often worth it.
But with all the focus on how overwhelming too much choice
can be, a different downside to unlimited choice and increased control has been
somewhat overlooked: the threat of temptation. (This also happens to be the
aspect of choice that I find most interesting.) Think again of the buffet
table. Once you overcome your initial surprise at just how much there is to
choose from and you begin loading your plate, you face a new problem: how to
know when to stop. It’s hard not to overeat with so many good options in front
of you! As a result, many weight-conscious individuals have devised personal
rules to constrain themselves, such as only a certain number of trips to the
buffet line per visit, or a certain number of buffet restaurant visits per
month, or even no visiting buffet restaurants at all.
It isn’t hard to think of lots of other self-control rules
that people impose on themselves to rein in the temptation that comes with
increased choice. Shoppers put budgets on how much they can spend during a trip
to the mall. They vow to visit only the store that carries the item they intend
to buy that day, without making any other stops. They only allow themselves to
buy tempting grocery product if they’re on sale or have a coupon. One of my
personal favorites – they vow to drink certain bottles of wine only on special
occasions. Unfortunately, although these rules work well to control
temptations, they can also make the consumer worse off overall. Untold bottles
of special wine have gone bad waiting for the special occasion that never
arrived.
So how do we, as marketers, find ways to help consumers deal with the increased temptations that come with increased choice? And is it even in our interest to do so? In my next post, I’ll talk about how companies who are aware of these self-control problems have found some creative ways to help consumers save themselves from their own bad behaviors.
Credit Wars, Juice Wars, Corporate Blog Book Wars, Hype, and Talking Over One Another
The back and forth between John Robb, Dave Winer, Robert Scoble, and Shel Israel continues. John hints that the deal he was not party to included a massive advance of money. Scoble hints that John is looking to do a separate book deal. Who knows what is fact, but this we can be sure of. There will be a book or books on corporate blogging hitting the market by the end of 2005 or begining of 2006. It indicates a trend that while there may be a ton of information on the Internet on the subject, there is still a gap of bridging blogosphere knowledge to those on the outside. The value of bridging that gap (to all parties) is likely tremendous.
Regardless of what each party argues, I cannot begin to imagine how high the emotions must be. I hope that they can work this out. Perhaps a subcontracting, side agreement, or value-added arrangement can be made, but this seems far off from where the parties are currently at.
Update (3/2/05): Robert Scoble posts "The emotions aren’t high on my side of things. Sorry if it came across that way."
The Sand Hill Group Has A New Blog
The Sand Hill Group, which provides venture investments and management advice to emerging enterprise technology leaders, has launched a new blog. Turns out that in addition to my blogging at The CIO Weblog I will be providing posts at The SandHill.com Blog from time to time as one of the resident bloggers. I’ve only interacted with Madhavan "M.R." Rangaswami via email so far, but I am looking forward to the opportunity. This "blogging stuff" is definitely different than the traditional management consulting I’ve typically done. Right now, I’m just kind of going with the flow in terms of where the market is taking me in terms of corporate blogging.
Steve Shu
Managing Director, S4 Management Group
PRTM Founder Takes Helm At Dallas-Based i2
The troubled supply chain software company i2 has a new CEO from my alma mater at Pittiglio Rabin Todd & McGrath. The new CEO and President is Michael McGrath, also known to people at the Firm as the "M" in PRTM and one of the founders of the company.
One of my former colleagues still with PRTM said that this is one *heck* of a way to spend retirement. It will be a tough slog. At least it is couched as an interim CEO/management deal. Interim management is something that PRTM has also been known for (where consultants have, in cases, played roles as both temporary managers or traditional consultants within client firms).
Steve Shu
Managing Director, S4 Management Group
In Search of Better Ways to Measure the ROI of Blogging
I was motivated to write this post based on some discussion at the CEO Bloggers’ Club.
I contend that the investment by most companies in blogging has been minuscule to date. Plus the number of companies making investments is minuscule. When corporate blogging does become more prevalent, I think more sophisticated frameworks for measuring ROI will evolve. These frameworks could be based on models from online marketing, accounting, or finance theory.
So what can one do today to get a grasp on ROI?
Rather than getting caught up in the minutia and complexity of trying to measure returns directly, here might be another way to think about this. It applies the concept of opportunity cost from economics.
Given certain conditions (e.g., no blogging fatigue, no blogging addiction), bloggers may tend to ante up more when the returns are sufficiently positive. When the returns are negative (not sufficiently positive), they tend to take money (i.e., blogging time) off the table and perform other things (this relates to the concept of opportunity cost).
Thus, if you can measure the returns on the activity that you’ve switched to (presuming you’ve switched away from blogging), then you can presume that your blogging return is not more than the activity you’ve switched to.
A little abstract, but here’s another way of coming at it. One could hypothetically say, how much $$ (or $$/hr) would it take you to switch away from blogging entirely (or for an hour, a year, or all of the above, say)? As you go through the complex process of thinking through this, you get an idea of time invested (which is the primary investment for most) versus the minimum return you require to stay with blogging.
If that number turns out to be less than or equal to $0, well then you are either a blogging addict or being coerced by your employer.
So rather than looking at blogging ROI, what’s your blogging opportunity cost?
Steve Shu
Managing Director, S4 Management Group