Some Thoughts On Hugh Hewitt’s Book, “Blog”

I finally got around to completing Hugh Hewitt’s book,
“Blog”
. I can’t say that I recommend this book for people looking to understand
business blogging or blogging at a practitioner-level. That said, Hugh does a very nice job of both
highlighting the legitimization of the blog in the context of specific
political events and detailing specific blog and mainstream media events around
the “fall” of Senator Trent Lott, stumblings of presidential candidate John
Kerry, and flurry surrounding the Dan Rather/CBS/Bush National Guard forged
documents.

A couple of interesting things the book touches on:

  1. Hugh draws a very interesting analogy between the invention of movable type printing press and the reformation surrounding the Catholic church and distribution of the Bible. Note that movable typesetting brought down the cost of books more than 400 times, thus enabling knowledge to be dispersed through sub-communities very rapidly. Aside from Hugh’s book, I find it interesting to think about the name of Six Apart’s non-hosted blogging software, “Movable Type” and the how cost of content management software, traditionally thought of as enterprise software, has come down (arguably tens to hundreds of times, where some of the mid-range content management products are in the tens of thousands of dollars range versus blogging at hundreds of dollars [clearly not comparing apples to apples though]).
  2. Using the uber reach of Hugh Hewitt, Hugh writes something to the effect of how he plans to highlight the blogs of up-and-coming and young Republican bloggers to ensure that the next generation of Republicans to defeat the Democrats is in place. He highlights the talent gap on the side of the Democrats, especially given that most of the uber political blogs are all Republican. Interesting tactics to say the least given the Democrat lean of mainstream media, and the recent announcement of Fox News to supporting blogging.

To be frank, I don’t follow political blogs that closely,
and I haven’t followed the rise of talk radio. Perhaps as a consequence, I
don’t follow Hugh Hewitt that closely. I am not sure if Hugh is center right or
far right. He characterizes himself as center right. That said, some of the
accounts in his book strike me as a bit one-sided. Perhaps not nauseating
one-sideness like Moore’s
Fahrenheit 9/11, but you may need to look past some of Hugh’s zeal to get through
this book if you are not a Republican.

Wists and Visual Bookmarks

Om Malik is blogging about Wists, a visual bookmarking service and a potential competitor to del.icio.us. In my prior post that commented on the del.icio.us venture investment, this what I was referring to in terms of del.icio.us investors getting another look sometime down the road and seeing what other industry markers play out (e.g., what innovations occur, who enters the space). In Fred Wilson’s recent post, Fred does hint that the user base for del.icio.us is very large. What the full range of competitive advantages will be (and how strong barriers will be) is yet to be seen.

Where Venture Capital Investing May Differ From What Is Taught In Business School

I’m a little later than the crowd to comment on Fred
Wilson’s blog post on his firm’s recent investment in del.icio.us, but I have
to say that his commentary (on at least one particular point) struck me as
atypical of what I have seen taught in business schools with respect to venture
investing. Not to say this is bad for either the b-schools or the investment – just noteworthy to mention the variance.

At risk of disservice to more extensive “venture capital”
checklists in evaluating deals, an extremely simplistic model of evaluating an
opportunity involves looking at three things:

  1. Team – how good are the employees?
  2. Customer – can the company clearly articulate who buys the product?
  3. Growth Rate – is the growth rate sufficient to generate [VC] rates of return?

Yet Fred’s comment indicates something to the effect that
“we’re not sure what the business model is yet, but at this phase we haven’t risked
a lot of money to do the deal”.

On the surface, Fred seems like both a smart guy and honest
guy, so it is probably reasonable to take his words at face value. I haven’t
read through other people’s commentaries yet, but some other potential
hypotheses (not mutually exclusive) for why the investment could diverge from
venture capital investing a la business school frameworks:

  • The
    option value of having an existing investors right agreement with del.icio.us
    is the real deal
    : 1) proprietary deal flow and early-access are the keys
    here and 2) if Joshua can meet technology milestones then the investors can
    have for “low” cost another look in the future as to where things stand.
  • The
    investors have a good gut feel about the potential types of business models
    that could play out but need some time to experiment or watch general industry
    markers play out.
    I’m guessing the former more than the latter.
  • Variation
    on theme #1: it is getting significantly harder to land quality, early-stage
    deals in the Internet space even though the number of available serial
    entrepreneurs has gone up.
    On the
    one hand, there may be too much money chasing too few companies, but perhaps
    there is also something to be said about the naturally sustainable market
    structure. I’m less tied to this hypothesis, but maybe I’m feeling more teary-eyed
    about the 40th anniversary of Moore’s Law and his statement that the
    phenomena of the doubling of transistors on a plot of real estate may only last
    another 5 years or so …

What I will say about the del.icio.us deal, is that some of
the investors are also actual end users of the product. I see this as having a
lot of positive effects on both how the deal is evaluated and on how the
product may evolve in the future. Congrats to the del.icio.us team and the
investors. If the investment doesn’t pan out, at least there is a cool product.
Perhaps a Warren Buffet model of investing in a different genre.

Note: Those unfamiliar with del.icio.us can view a prior post of mine here that gathers some screencast info, screenshots, etc.

Blogosphere Says Cartoon Character Blogging Is Lame – I Say Too Early To Say

There are a number of influential bloggers out there saying that blogging by cartoon characters is lame and a waste of time. See here and here, plus trace through some of the links and comments for a general feel. As examples of cartoon characters blogging, here are links to  GEICO’s Gecko blog and Captain Morgan’s blog. What triggered my return visit to the subject of cartoon character blogging was that John Nardini was nice enough to send me a link last week to his new Moosetopia blog associated with Moosetracks ice cream.

My take on this: Too early to tell whether cartoon character blogs (as a general market) will work.

At one point in time, we said that the security in Netscape browsers couldn’t get hacked. Too many key combinations to try in our lifetime, etc., etc. Then (perhaps not getting the specifics right) some 17-year old figures out how to hack the security in a matter of minutes.

Someone says it can’t be done. That just challenges the world to find the right mix.

The right mix may lie in:

  • having a real person blog for a cartoon character in a non-secretive way (like John Nardini does)
  • having complementary Jeckl and Hyde type blogging sites (I think I have seen this style on the net before and it seems to work because one can get the benefit of anonymity plus extreme views)
  • applying audio blogging or other multimedia aspects (e.g., for kids)
  • having the cartoon character visit from time to time
  • having a cartoon character blog counterpoint
  • creating a cult-like following … only those in the know will know about who is the blogger behind the cartoon character (a la In-And-Out Burger’s secret menu).

We allow authors and bloggers to use pseudo names all the time. While cartoon character blogging is clearly not the same thing, there is the added benefit of near-infinite creativity.

All said, I am all for companies that do some experimenting with cartoon character blogging. I think it’s great for guy’s like John to try to pave the way for the rest to learn what works and what doesn’t. There’s not enough data points and posts out there to call this one yet.

Update (4/18/05): Spelling correction on "Jeckl". Should be "Jekyll". My favorite drummer is Dave Weckl, and I made a subliminal spelling mistake.

Examples Of Both The Power and Pitfalls Of Storytelling In Management

The following has been cross-posted at The CIO Weblog.

I’ve been catching up on my marketing reading over the past few weeks, and what’s great about some of the material is the use of storytelling. In fact, storytelling and the use of analogies are a great thing to use not only in marketing but also in areas like IT and general management. Storytelling can be used to get people motivated and on the bandwagon.

A Computerworld interview with Harvard Business School’s Professor Jan Rivkin, captures an excellent condition where analogies and storytelling work in the IT area:

Why is analogical reasoning so useful in a field like IT?
Analogies are most powerful in settings where there’s not enough
clarity to use deductive reasoning nor so much ambiguity that you have
to go for trial and error. Many pockets of IT have this middle ground
that’s familiar enough to make links to more familiar settings but not
clear enough to identify cause and effect. In that middle ground,
analogies may be the only options we’ve got.

What I like about the Computerworld article, however, is that it also explicitly touches on some aspects of organizational behavior (OB) and decision making. The OB field is something that I am particularly sensitive to and is something that is not covered by all business schools as a course in of itself. Here are examples of two OB biases addressed in the article (brackets added by me to clarify original text snipped out of context):

[A] potential problem [with using analogies] is the anchoring effect. Can you explain?
People get attached intellectually and emotionally to their analogies,
and it’s very hard to shake. If you look at Sun, Scott McNealy often
uses analogies drawn from the auto business. He argues that buyers
should be interested in the whole package, not the components, because
when they buy a car, they care about the whole car, not where the
carburetor comes from. But you have to question how dispassionately he
can assess that analogy. His father worked for years in the auto
business, and his sons are named for auto models: Maverick, Scout, Colt
and Dakota.

Tell me about confirmation bias. It appears that human
beings tend strongly to seek out data that confirms their beliefs and
invest too little in seeking out disconfirming data. We like to be
right. If analogies come into our heads, we can always find elements of
reality to confirm our belief in them.

I also have to give a positive plug for the warning on confirmation biases. This is a key thing taught Day 1 at many management consulting firms to test and mitigate biases for, but it is something which operating company employees seem to be less aware of (based on my anecdotal experiences). Not sure why this is so, but to be fair, management consultants also have tendencies for certain blindspots as compared to operating company employees.

But I digress. In any case, by all means use storytelling in management, especially when trying to establish some ground in a complex business area, but be aware of the pitfalls because anchors can be hard to shake and because stories should not be taken as universal truths.

Uber Blogger Kottke Zooms Past Ramen Noodle Barrier

I have pretty limited access to the network right now, but thought I would link to a funny but insightful post by uber blogger Kottke that reports on his fund raising results to support himself as a full-time blogger. The graph on the front page is instructional for bloggers aspiring to support a career solely through blogging … Kottke reports he was clearly able to break the "Ramen noodle" barrier, which is as reported by Kottke, "the point at which I could each something besides ramen noodles for every meal". He wasn’t quite able to make his comfort zone of 1/3 pre-blogging salary …

For those that eat two Ramen noodle meals per say, that’s like a budget of $0.50 per day, right?

Amazing how a brand like Ramen can not only describe a near bottom-end point of one’s sustainable lifestyle but also be a widespread loved food and tasty snack.

In other fund raising news over the weekend, Joshua Schachter reports more on the investors in del.icio.us.

Where Cockroaches Are Loved In The Tech Industry

Jason Caplain has some good notes from an NVCA meeting today. Good overview of the where the markets are at, where the shift in the tranche financings are going, and what has happened to some of the VC partnerships (relative to past speculations). What caught my eye was this (emphasis is mine):

There is a very healthy IPO and acquisition market with good companies that have gone through bad times.

Paul Brown and I used to use a term for this. Not a very good marketing term, but for early-stage companies that survived for more than 18 months after the nuclear holocaust, cliff dropoff in customer prospect propensity to buy, and bubble 1.0 fallout … well we referred to such companies as the "cockroaches" of the industry to reflect their resiliency to survive. Looks like cockroaches are coming into favor. All together now, "We are the cockroaches."

Past Study On Search Funds

Andy posts and points me to some Stanford business school information on Search Funds. A free, Stanford business school note/search fund study is here (before clicking: note PDF link). The Stanford site indicates:

Conceived in 1984, the search fund is an investment vehicle in which investors financially support an entrepreneur’s efforts to locate and acquire a privately held company. Recent MBA and law school graduates are using this approach more and more frequently to become entrepreneurs shortly after graduation, despite their lack of operating experience.

It’s something I thought about doing (for a passing moment) when I originally moved to Dallas – for some reason I’ve never heard the name of this type of thing. Perhaps it is because it’s kind of a hybrid between middle-market investment banking, LBO, and angel funding deals. I never learned about this type of fund at the University of Chicago’s course on Entrepreneurship, Private Equity, and Venture Capital. Additionally, I’ve not run into any friends that have used the term. Kind of funny. I suppose another explanation for me failing to catch the term "search fund" is that I tend to like straight-up equity deals better – then I can forget about all of the "complex" finance stuff associated with debt deals like unlevering the beta, using the adjusted present value(APV) method, etc. 🙂