Forget The Cluetrain, Return To Seminal Works Of Information Theory Of The 40s

Posts by Umair Haque, Fred Wilson, and Jeff Nolan are all talking about the looming attention crisis (see here & here) related to information overload and the blogosphere. Wilson captures Umair’s words:

Herbert Simon said it in 1971, which is that "What does an abundance of information create?" A scarcity of attention basically, right?

It’s funny that blogging is starting to replace email conversations (based on ROI), yet we are still in overload. I, for one, peaked out at reading between 50 and 100 feeds, and I needed to start to drop some and add others as my work balance shifted.

For those may not know, blogging was heavily influenced the seminal blogging work, "The Cluetrain Manifesto". The takeaway saying from that work has been "markets are conversations".

But I think with the doubling of the blogosphere hand over fist (with no end in sight on the graphical charts) we are starting to see some limits as to what people can process.

That is why I think we will see a return to works that preceded the Cluetrain by 50-60 some years in the 1940s. These are the seminal works of Claude Shannon on information theory, and much of his work was written in plain English without having to be decorated with tons of mathematics. We may find inspiration in solving some of our new problems from the information theory and related fields.

Some key items from the field of information theory:

  • The essence of information can only be reduced so far before the content is distorted. This concept became known as the entropy bound. Entropy can be thought of as an energy-level contained within a message.
  • Smart guys like Huffman (at Stanford when he did his master’s thesis if I recall correctly) developed algorithms for organizing information so that it could be reduced using probabilities. More frequently occuring information or data patterns (i.e., higher probability items) would be encoded using short patterns (likely shorter than their original length). Less frequently occuring data patterns would be encoded using longer patterns, perhaps even longer than their original length. The net effect of structuring things in total around a probability-oriented tree was to increase efficiency of information transfer (e.g., compress information sent over a modem).
  • A channel (such as a data pipe into the home, or perhaps likened to that of a blog reader’s maximum ability to process information) had to have as much capacity as the entropy.
  • No message could be compressed beyond the entropy bound or it would be distorted (i.e., data lost).
  • But a new field grew out of this area, called rate distortion theory. Rate distortion theory enabled people to compress (and hence, process) information even better. The side effects were that one needed to control where distortion occurred. For example, much of the music contained on an iPod is not an exact reproduction of the bits and bytes on an original compact disk. At risk of trivializing the process of getting that information onto an iPod, data and information has been thrown out or trimmed from the song. That said, the audio folks try to use knowledge of the ear, hearing, music reproduction, etc. to shape the noise and distortion into an area where people don’t care (e.g., in some audio processing systems, perhaps where the average person can’t hear imperfections, such as above 15kHz frequency where certain cymbal overtones occur).

The blogosphere faces similar challenges in terms of capacity limitations, means for improving efficiency, and information distortion.

Feedreaders can speed the process of reading blogs. I’m guessing my efficiency in reading news went up 50%+ after shifting to a feedreader.

At some point though, I ran out of channel bandwidth using this method. What to do then?

Well as folks like Andrew have pointed out (as does Jeff Nolan in his post), people do a lot of linking to the same posts. Good case for unsubscribing to A-list blogs because you get the same information everywhere. But I suppose that the unsubscribing method for reducing information may create some distortion. One is not getting info straight from the horse’s mouth so to speak.

Other methods, such as using web services to aggregate tags (as recently contracted by Nivi) are also a way to reduce information. But I suppose that this method could create distortion in that one is seeking information that tends to be the same as what you’ve always sought out in the past.

Another area of interest is around blog communities (as I mentioned before here in the context of BusinessWeek’s b-school community developed by 21Publish), and how the dialogue surrounding these types of structures seems different to me.

I do not know the answer to the general question of how to reduce information overload most effectively (I have resorted to dropping feeds and adding new ones). But I will say that I suspect the blogosphere (and the web in general) does not pay enough attention to holes and gaps in information (e.g., can we create maps of worlds readers are missing). We also tend not to pay enough attention to distortions created by circular linking, information reduction, reinforcing lists, etc. Perhaps not mainstream concerns in the blogosphere, but I know that these types of pitfalls have to be avoided in business in general. Why should use of the blogosphere be any different?

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Update (11/1/05): Bill Burnham has a post on Feed Overload Syndrome.

Musings On The Initial Federal Response To Hurricane Katrina (Operations and Leadership)

Caveat: not fully thought through but based on digesting information passively over one week since Katrina hit.

I’m not sure that I’ve ever blogged about a public issue before, but the US response to Hurricane Katrina at the federal level touches on two areas that I have strong opinions on in the business world: these are roles of operations and leadership. There is another level to this that I am always at a heightened sense of awareness to – notably cases when an organization tries to effect change to both operations and leadership at the same time.

Operations structure plays a crucial role in the ability of an organization to respond. If there are too many layers or too many players that need to be involved, the cycle-time to respond will surely go up. Sometimes the response time can be part of an organization’s product or service by design. As an example in the business world, take Pearle Vision versus a high-end glasses manufacturer. Pearle Vision markets one-hour turnaround times from order until the customer has glasses. As a consequence of a strategic goal of a one-hour turnaround time, the operations are designed to facilitate speed. Put every type of glasses frames, lens, etc. (all the inventory and lab equipment) in all of the outlets so that everything can be done on the spot. This type of operations looks quite different from a high-end, customized glasses manufacturer that may have to send things out to a centralized laboratory with centralized, high-grade inventory and lab equipment. The high-end manufacturer will unlikely be able to service one-hour turnaround times.

What has been disturbing to me about the initial response to Katrina, while it has been truly a very difficult thing to respond to (no question), is that I cannot understand regardless of the operations structure as to how the initial response could have been so poor. Thousands of people in immediate need. Chaos everywhere. Looting. Shootings. Then, after what seems like an unacceptance response time later, the federal government sends in one boat. Surely you must be joking. Maybe I’m ignorant about how military responses would be off of our homeland, but it seems if this type of situation would have happened in a war zone, we would have been much quicker to respond. But even if we weren’t able to respond more quickly, surely we would have sent more resources in than one boat, right?

Now, as my wife reminds me, there are laws that separate military forces and the National Guard to prevent the occurence of coups, whereby a general could use the military to take over the US. OK. Let’s presume that operations and structure weren’t in our favor then. One has to fall back on the role of leadership. Only leadership and communication are left, right? So maybe that’s where the breakdown occurred.

But it seems like by the recent news to dismantle FEMA and turn things over to the Department of Homeland Security, we are changing both the operations structure and leadership. Sure. Maybe both are broken. I don’t know. But when you change both variables as opposed to changing one variable and holding the other constant, there’s an increased level of risk, risk that we’ll never know what was wrong about the past, or whether we are moving to something that is more right.

Sometimes when things are broken, you need to change everything. Gut the thing, change all the parts, etc. There’s little time for engineering. Get out the machette and triage. Desperate times call for desperate measures so to speak.

In business situations, before a team ever suggested something like a full changeout either in a management consulting engagement or with an internal management situation, we made sure to think things through (even with the Board) and that that process was transparent to the parties that needed to know. This becomes even more important if the person to be delegated to is not a proven rock star.

Hopefully we will be moving in the right direction with the forthcoming changes, but I have to say that as an outsider to this and whether the new steps are right, it seems like we may be skipping some steps in our appetite for change.

Outsourcing CIOs

Debra Chamra has a good article at Local Tech Wire on outsourcing CIOs. If your organization hasn’t thought about this before, perhaps a snip from the article’s section entitled, "Renting, Not Buying" provides good backdrop:

And why not?  It is no secret to small and mid-size businesses that good tech help is not only hard to find these days, but potentially, hard to afford on a full-time basis.  Known for creative solutions, these organizations have decided to rent rather than buy Chief Information Officers (CIOs).

According to Aberdeen Group senior analyst Stephen Lane, “The idea behind CIO outsourcing is that you’re renting an officer of the company.  Ideally, that’s someone who has the experience to get your company started with IT while you’re building your own organization.”  This movement goes beyond standard project-based outsourcing – an outsourced CIO becomes a member of the senior management team.  Rest assured – while the role of CIO is relatively new, executive outsourcing is not a new endeavor. CEOs and CFOs have been outsourced successfully for years.

Continue reading “Outsourcing CIOs”

My First Amazon.com Book Review: “The Virtual Handshake”

I reviewed the book, "The Virtual Handshake" by David Teten and Scott Allen. My review is listed below and is also at the Amazon site. The American Management Association will publish "The Virtual Handshake: Opening Doors and Closing Deals Online" on August 30, 2005. Nice job by David and Scott.

As a person that sidewinded professionally into the social networking and blogging space over the course of a couple years, I wish I had the Virtual Handshake when I started my journey because it would have cut down the learning curve by orders of magnitude. The book provides a terrific overview of online and virtual networking technologies through detailed accounts of personal and business cases from around the world. Having a personal online presence has never been more important, and this book can show business people why it matters, how it matters, and where one can go to get started (in more areas than most can imagine). I have the Virtual Handshake as part of the required reading list for new employees not only because it’s the best concrete book on online networking in the market but also because I want people I work with to have a leg up in the world as individuals.

Continue reading “My First Amazon.com Book Review: “The Virtual Handshake””

It Will Be Made In India

I just put up a post over at the CIO Weblog entitled, "OEM Software Supplier Balance To Shift Towards India". The shifts occuring with India have really peaked my interest from at least two areas: 1) how the changes will affect my children, and 2) how the changes will affect the business school communities.

Although it’s hard to read the tea leaves on this stuff, here’s a summary of some of the forces:

  • financial skills and other skills getting commoditized
  • offshoring to India growing
  • offshoring of business skills to India growing
  • offshoring of IT to India changing from offshoring to original manufacturing
  • lower, historical concentration of management skills in India
  • demand for MBAs in the US in decline
  • concentration of the best business schools remains in the US
  • US business schools under pressure (e.g., enrollment) and in decline
  • MBA want to do management
  • Signs of MBAs forgoing Wall Street for India internships (NY Times article)

To put light on the difference in demand, my sources tell me that MBA recruiting in India is very, very hot. As I understand it, MBAs go through an intense one day of recruiting, and at the end of that one day each person has 5-6 offers in hand. Compare that recruiting environment to the MBA environment for US students. No comparison.

So what are the opportunities? Probably any of the following:

  • Opening of satellite campuses for US b-schools in India
  • Maybe some entrepreneurs will start some new universities in India (like the venture when starting the INSEAD b-school)
  • Growth of executive housing and relocation services for India
  • High-end real estate targeted at international executives

The Dark Side To Prosperity

My wife is quoted again (not nearly as extensively as the immediately prior post) by the DallasNews here (note that web registration is required [*]). While my wife did the interview some time ago, it is noteworthy to set some context that my wife is marketing professor, and she has a strong research interest in consumer behavior and self-control. This article does a good job of showing where people can lose self-control and get themselves in a bind.

[*] Also to introduce some people to technology they might not have used before, people can bypass compulsory web registration for many news sites by using BugMeNot.com. Please make sure that you check out the terms of service for legal use of the BugMeNot service. As with many of the emerging services on the Internet (e.g., peer-to-peer file sharing), the service can be used for both legal and illegal purposes. Be sure in what context you are using the service.

Two Internet Stops For Information On Prediction Markets

For Friday, I thought I would highlight two blogs/sites that have been stopping points of mine for information on "prediction markets". At risk of botching the definition of "prediction markets", I will sidestep it a bit and say that my interest in the prediction market area stems from a few things:

  • organizational behavior theory
  • "wisdom of the crowds" concepts
  • free-market theory (espoused at the business school at the University of Chicago and other places heavily grounded in economic principles)
  • "some" overlap with Web 2.0.

A couple of prior posts of mine where I loosely touched on topics in the vicinity include a post on the Hot Hand Fund and a post on Maven Havens and del.icio.us.

But for more information on prediction markets, two stops people should visit are:

Ivy League Dating

I’m opening my University of Chicago alumni magazine for an intellectual read, and I find this hillarious dating website in the classifieds, "The Right Stuff". The banner ad has text like:

  • " … membership in the Ivy League of Dating … "
  • "… date students, grads, faculty of the Ivies, Stanford, Caltech, U. of Chicago, and a few others …"

The close proximity of the words "date", "students", "grads", and "faculty" together sounds so naughty.