The Dark Side To Prosperity

My wife is quoted again (not nearly as extensively as the immediately prior post) by the DallasNews here (note that web registration is required [*]). While my wife did the interview some time ago, it is noteworthy to set some context that my wife is marketing professor, and she has a strong research interest in consumer behavior and self-control. This article does a good job of showing where people can lose self-control and get themselves in a bind.

[*] Also to introduce some people to technology they might not have used before, people can bypass compulsory web registration for many news sites by using BugMeNot.com. Please make sure that you check out the terms of service for legal use of the BugMeNot service. As with many of the emerging services on the Internet (e.g., peer-to-peer file sharing), the service can be used for both legal and illegal purposes. Be sure in what context you are using the service.

A Case Example Of Where Pricing Changes Give Us Agita

My wife (Suzanne Shu) is quoted pretty extensively in an article in the Seattle Times by Drew DeSilver. The article is entitled, "Gas Pump Angst: Why Rising Price Riles Us Up". Nice job, Drew and Suzanne.

Update (8/15/05): I guess folks were pretty impressed with this article. I just learned that my wife has a TV spot on NBC this afternoon at 4:00pm.

Update (8/15/05): NBC link is here. Actually this aired on the 6:00pm news at the top of the hour.

Update (8/16/05): Two airings for my wife on the 5:00pm and 6:00pm news. Link is here for the next 21 days. Looks like you cannot view it in Firefox (only Internet Explorer).

Update (8/17/05): Another article with the Dallas Morning News stemming from the article here. Also, Bloomberg NY radio station did a live interview this morning. Don’t know if the audio is available online, but I may find out.

Update (9/2/05): Denver post article.

Two Internet Stops For Information On Prediction Markets

For Friday, I thought I would highlight two blogs/sites that have been stopping points of mine for information on "prediction markets". At risk of botching the definition of "prediction markets", I will sidestep it a bit and say that my interest in the prediction market area stems from a few things:

  • organizational behavior theory
  • "wisdom of the crowds" concepts
  • free-market theory (espoused at the business school at the University of Chicago and other places heavily grounded in economic principles)
  • "some" overlap with Web 2.0.

A couple of prior posts of mine where I loosely touched on topics in the vicinity include a post on the Hot Hand Fund and a post on Maven Havens and del.icio.us.

But for more information on prediction markets, two stops people should visit are:

Bud Gibson Update On Michigan (Ross) Business School Blogging Bootcamp

Bud Gibson has an impressive post that sums up the results of the blogging bootcamp at the Michigan Business School. Lots of good stuff in Bud’s post including some fine points on PageRanks and search engine optimization. Bud’s post opens with the following:

From May 10 through June 23, 2005, we ran the first High Octane Blogging Bootcamp for 33 MBAs at University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business.  Our client for the bootcamp, Coach’s, served the Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti, Michigan market for disaster cleaning and restoration services.  Recent surveys indicate that over seventy percent of consumers search the web when shopping locally for services such as Coach’s.  We wanted the bootcamp to demonstrate how Web 2.0
technologies like weblogs and RSS could help better establish a
company’s search presence to take advantage of this channel. To really
push the idea, we informally set a goal that bootcamp participants’
team weblogs outperform Coach’s site on searches for its own keywords.

Great alignment of consumer purchase process with effect of blogging on search engine optimization. Bud wraps up with a key implication of blogging (in the small business segment):

The bootcamp results demonstrate that with moderate but systematic
effort bloggers can achieve search visibility that outperforms
established local players for relevant searches.

Bud also gives some other plugs for blogging as an alternative to websites and traditional paid search:

Although I can’t say I’m an expert on the numerics associated with the first bullet point, I wonder whether this type of stuff is the sign of a fall of Web 1.0 Advertising Industrial Complex (re-adapting a phrase coined by Seth Godin). The mix of blogging, rise of blog readership, RSS ads, sponsored bloggers, sponsored posts, measurement tools, and auction markets are changing the landscape.

Ivy League Dating

I’m opening my University of Chicago alumni magazine for an intellectual read, and I find this hillarious dating website in the classifieds, "The Right Stuff". The banner ad has text like:

  • " … membership in the Ivy League of Dating … "
  • "… date students, grads, faculty of the Ivies, Stanford, Caltech, U. of Chicago, and a few others …"

The close proximity of the words "date", "students", "grads", and "faculty" together sounds so naughty.

Losing Your Teeth And Considering Marginal Deals

"Losing your teeth is only a money-making proposition (from the tooth fairy) for a limited period of time," says father Shu to daughter Shu.

Same goes for business. You probably saw that one coming from a mile away.

There are countless people who recommend walking away from deals that are either too one-sided and/or are money losers (where you are losing your teeth) up-front with expectations on the come. While I’m more in agreement with the former than the latter, I anecdotally agree that it’s uncommon to see deals that are money-losers up-front generate dollars on the come. Exceptions that come to mind are if the loss process is tuned into the product or product line, if substantial investment is required for first-mover advantages (e.g., multinationals doing business in China and not getting returns for many years because of culture and economic structures), and if complementary product sales are part of the biz strategy (e.g., giving away video game players to make money on the game cartridges).

But I’m not such a hardliner on walking away from individual deals on the margin as some may be (even when factoring in cost of capital, provided that cost of capital is not ridiculously steep in some dimension). Based on my comment to my daughter, it was implied that one could make money for a period of time by losing one’s teeth. Heck counting teeth and quarters is easy. Just a little different kind of economics and counting when you are dealing with companies because you may be sizing up business development, controller, execution bandwidth, and partner capabilities in addition to the teeth in various intercompany agreements.

Just some other areas to consider before taking a deal on the margin:

  • if you finding yourself praying that the deal will turn positive in the future ("spider sense" is tingling)
  • if you are a small business, independent practitioner, or venture, consider the psychological role that momentum plays in entrepreneurial settings
  • how you feel about how committed folks are on realizing post-deal value (if it’s too complicated on this dimension, then that may set off your spider senses again)
  • if you personally have any biases that may be affecting your judgement in this particular deal.

On Culture And Hiring/Firing

I found this post at the Entrepreneurial Mind (indirect via Christian Mayaud here), which focuses on the topic of firing employees because of a lack of culture fit. The general tone of the article, in my mind, supports the case for small employers and ventures to let go of employees that do not fit into the culture fostered by the business.

In general, I can support such a notion, but there are some pre-conditions that should be met (some more than others):

  • the manager should be very conscious that while discrimination is allowed, it is illegal for some classes/criteria explicitly protected by employment laws (e.g., gender, veterans)
  • the manager should work with the subordinate as much as possible to make sure the subordinate is aware of areas where they could improve – can be a delicate subject, but things should be well-intended by the manager in any case
  • the manager should clearly understand the terms of the contractual agreement with the employee (e.g., at-will employment, termination clauses)
  • the manager should be cognizant of balancing culture fit, diversity, creative tension, and disharmony prior to making a termination decision.

I guess to frame things in a bit of a different light, as compared to larger companies, some ventures will only succeed if the chemistry is right up-front. As opposed to thinking about things as discriminating against those that don’t fit the culture, one can think about things as actively selecting those that fit with and/or complement the vision, culture, and needs of the company and shedding the rest. Shedding people is tough. In some cases, even if the manager doesn’t want to shed people, the whole company may be in a bind (or dead) if it doesn’t.

As a sanity check, I think that a manager also needs to reflect on when people are fired and feel at least a little bad. That sort of sensitivity keeps an organization in check and helps to ensure that firing someone for a lack of culture fit (for lack of better words) is not just rationalization for unjustified discrimination.

Mr. Subliminal Man Meets Web 2.0

Last week I had a post which talked about how blogging got a bit out of hand at Robert Scoble’s blog (example post here). But what amazed me about commenting afar about a post was how rapidly Robert commented on my post. It couldn’t have been more than an hour after I posted that he knew what I did, and he responded. It like subliminal messaging. Make reference here … and voila, people know.

This virtual interconnectedness is a funny thing about the blogosphere that especially non-bloggers (or people just getting introduced to blogs) get intrigued by. Here’s example of a case on April Fool’s Day where I pointed to Dave Sifry (CEO of Technorati, basically blog search engine company), and he commented on my post within the day. Yet another example, is when I posted about some blogging controversy at Technorati and simultaneous events at Feedster regarding blogging policy (although if I recall correctly, I may used an explicit trackback in this case). Scott Rafer (CEO of Feedster) was quick to correct (and rightly so) my characterization that Feedster was opportunistic in their timing of introducing a blog policy. Scott Johnson (co-founder at Feedster) also played a role in giving me the heads-up about my inaccurate guess on what happened.

Randy Charles Morin has a unique post great post that outlines the accuracy and timeliness of some of the blog tools in tracking links mass confusion. These tools are key part of the puzzle link here link here to understanding how people know link here when you link here are talking reciprocal link about them reciprocal link and want a reciprocal link reciprocal link. Tools like PubSub, Yahoo Alerts, Bloglines, and BlogPulse may also help need easier interface big time waste ok joke people to know when people on the internet are talking about them link here big benefit reciprocal link.

I guess my main point is that blogs great thing are different from websites, and that blogs great thing may eventually replace websites someday great thing big money.

(Motivated by the speed of Web 2.0 and Mr. Subliminal Man very funny very funny from Saturday Night Live past its prime.)