Very coincidental that related to my prior posts on financial markets and "The Wisdom of Crowds" that venture capitalist Fred Wilson posts about the potential of Bubble 2.0 contrasted by the real promises of Web 2.0. Is Fred thin-slicing what he is seeing and applying tacit knowledge to hint about the dangers ahead? Are free markets always wise?
I really like Fred’s closing comments:
I don’t have any good answers to these problems, but I’ll say this:
If you were at the first party, then you should never forget how it felt when it was over.
Drink responsibly this time.
I was planning on posting something I missed before (in a
managerial-decision making post) on forward thinking about regret to
assist with decisions. Fred’s comments are a good example forward thinking about regret to resolve a decision that can’t be rigorously reasoned out.
Steve Shu
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Update (3/29/05): I realize that I probably should not draw such a close parallel to the markets addressed in the hot hand fund post and Fred Wilson’s post. I suspect that Fred’s post has more focus on the venture capital markets as opposed to the overall market bubble burst we saw in Bubble 1.0. That said, the gist of my post was to provoke thought about when collective thought breaks down because of groupthink or other reasons.